The Race for EV Minerals is Reshaping Global Politics

As electric vehicles become more common on U.S. roads, a new University of Virginia study reveals that the biggest challenge to building them isn’t technology; it’s the global scramble for the minerals that make EV batteries possible.

In a new paper, published in Politics & Society, UVA sociologist Daniel Driscoll and his co-authors examine how the United States and China are competing globally to secure critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite. These minerals, which are essential to the EV supply chain, from battery cells to finished cars, are concentrated in only a handful of countries. 

The authors find that getting enough of these minerals is so difficult, and the supply chains so international in scope, that countries can no longer rely on domestic policies alone. Instead, major powers increasingly use diplomacy tactics, trade heft, military threats and financial tools abroad to unlock access.

For consumers, too, the challenges posed by EVs are getting more complicated. The price and availability of EVs and the success of efforts to reduce carbon emissions depend on stable supplies of these minerals, but the study points out that mineral markets are extremely volatile, making EV manufacturing vulnerable to sudden shortages or spikes in cost.

The study also suggests that China, which currently dominates global EV production, secures minerals by leveraging state-owned companies, long-term government financing and planning, and control of key mining, processing and transportation infrastructures overseas. Meanwhile, the United States uses its globalized financial reach, military might and trade alliances to persuade mineral-rich countries to shift toward U.S.-friendly supply chains.

Both approaches reflect a broader reality, the authors argue: in the EV era, industrial policy has become foreign policy.

Consequently, international influence is now essential aspect of success in the industry. As the authors write, “Industrial policies are only likely to be successfully internationalized when there is a substantial power advantage of the policy’s origin country over host or partner countries.” This, they find, is why China and the United States, as the world’s largest economic and strategic powers, are best positioned to shape the future of EV production, for the better or for the worse.

The findings arrive as many governments worldwide compete to build green industries, avoid supply-chain disruptions and respond to growing geopolitical tensions, which ultimately makes the future of clean transportation dependent on decisions made far beyond national borders.