UVA Mathematician to Help Lead National Predictive Science Center

The University of Virginia has been selected by the U.S. Department of Energy as the home of the multi-university SAGEST Predictive Simulation Center. The $16 million multi-year initiative will focus on making computer models of complex physical systems more accurate and dependable. These predictive tools will help scientists and engineers simulate phenomena that are too dangerous, expensive or difficult to test in real life — from spacecraft reentering Earth’s atmosphere to the behavior of advanced materials used in clean-energy technologies.

By improving how researchers model and test real-world systems, SAGEST, which stands for “Stochastic Simulations of Ablative Geometries with Error-Learning in Space and Time,” will accelerate innovation in fields such as aerospace, energy and climate science — areas where better simulations can lead to safer designs, more efficient energy use and faster discovery.

UVA mathematician Juraj Földes, an associate professor in the Department of Mathematics, will assist in the verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification aera, one of the six cores, by providing additional mathematical analysis to support predictability. 

“Mathematics can help with making sure that what we get from simulations or AI models is actually relevant and provides us with reasonable confidence,” Földes said. “Practical problems are outrageously difficult to solve — but we can help with analyzing some small components with well-defined conditions using mathematical principles that tell us when the results are trustworthy.”

The Center’s researchers, led by School of Engineering and Applied Science Professor Xinfeng Gao who assembled the multidisciplinary team, will focus on making computer models more predictive in conditions where experiments are nearly impossible — such as extreme heat, pressure or speed. Reliable simulations can save time and significant costs in fields from aerospace design to energy production, where a single physical test might run into millions of dollars or carry significant risk.

The Predictive Simulation Center will also create new opportunities for students and early-career researchers, ensuring that UVA’s investment in predictive science extends well beyond the life of the grant. The Center will foster closer collaboration between engineering and mathematics by involving more students along the way.

According to Christa Acampora, Buckner W. Clay Professor of Philosophy and dean of Arts & Sciences, these opportunities will also support the College’s goals to advance research excellence and deepen cross-disciplinary collaboration.  

“Combining expertise in mathematics, data science and engineering, our faculty are helping to build safer technologies, accelerate innovation, and strengthen UVA’s leadership at the intersection of discovery and application,” Acampora said. 

For Földes, the project is both practical and intellectually rewarding. “It’s very exciting as an opportunity to learn and interact with new people,” he said. “These interdisciplinary interactions really help mathematicians, because you get problems you’d never have thought were relevant,” he said. “Someone comes and says, ‘We are interested in you looking at the problem from a particular angle,’ and it gives you new incentives and motivations — maybe even helps you discover something interesting for mathematics itself.”