War-torn Ukraine's Ecological Damage Subject of Innovative UVA Study

A recent report by University of Virginia researchers on the destruction of a dam in eastern Ukraine showcases a novel approach to war crime investigations based in environmental science.  

The report by the Conflict Observatory, a U.S. State Department-funded initiative to support a consortium of independent, university-based experts to produce high-quality documentation of potential human rights violations and international crimes to increase public awareness and enable accountability, investigated the March and September 2022 breaches of Ukraine’s Oskil Dam. The second breach rendered the dam inoperable for 22 months, depriving the people and ecosystems of eastern Ukraine of a critical resource for household and agricultural water in one of the country’s driest regions. 

Using remote sensing methodologies to examine decreases in vegetation density and soil moisture in forests and other areas around the dam, the report confirms critical damage. The Oskil Dam’s destruction may violate the International Criminal Court’s Rome Statute as well as the Criminal Code of Ukraine, but the Conflict Observatory report refrains from attributing either breach of the dam to actions by Russia or Ukraine in the ongoing conflict. 

“This is a complicated case, and our task as researchers is to evaluate as wide a range of information as possible and evaluate events from multiple angles. One thing is clear: without Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine, the acute environmental damage we’re seeing would not be occurring,” said Fiona Greenland, an associate professor of sociology and director of UVA’s Cultural Resilience Informatics and Analysis, or CURIA, Lab. 

Santiago Munevar, lead author of the report and a Ph.D. graduate of UVA’s Department of Environmental Sciences, said the remote-sensing technique used by their team to investigate damage to the Oskil Dam has proven valuable for researching environmental change, but it has not been commonly applied to conflict zones.  

“It’s important to have remote assessment tools because environmental damage in Ukraine is widespread, but many areas are too dangerous for researchers to visit. Our report shows significant ecosystems impacts over a two-year span,” said Munevar, a research assistant at UVA. 

Greenland credited Munevar with recognizing the potential advantage of measuring moisture levels in the area surrounding the breached dam through a technique called NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) using infrared waves captured in satellite imagery. 

“It was challenging work because, due to the war, it’s too risky to conduct on-site soil and water assessments. We needed a remote damage assessment method, and Santi recognized the promise of NDVI from his training at UVA.” Greenland said.  

In addition to cataloging the damage visible through satellite imagery, the research team emphasizes the cultural significance of the protected area around the dam and its impact on everyday life for local Ukrainians.  

“One of Ukraine’s most iconic national parks, Sviati Hory — also known as Holy Mountains National Nature Park — is downstream from the dam, and we can see substantial damage throughout that area,” Greenland said. “Furthermore, local residents enjoyed the water at the Oskil reservoir for picnics, fishing and spending time with their families. These outdoor areas are vital for community well-being.” 

In addition to its findings on the impact on human life in eastern Ukraine, the report indicates fauna living near the dam will suffer over time due to the damaged ecosystem. 

“Ukraine is often called the breadbasket of Europe, thanks to a rich and complicated soil matrix. When a dam is breached and the river floods the surrounding area, the balance of soil layers will be altered,” said Greenland, who continues to do field research in Ukraine and is writing a book about cultural heritage destruction. “The findings in our report suggest the long-term consequences for aquatic life, birds and animals in the impacted areas are significant. The effects of the Oskil Dam flood will be felt for years to come,”  

The Conflict Observatory’s work has been funded by the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, in the U.S. Department of State. The research team includes open-source analysts, academic scholars and experts in international law. Using open-source documentation, very high resolution (VHR) satellite imagery, and geospatial data analysis, the Conflict Observatory documents potential evidence and maintains credible and verifiable digital records with the aim of driving judicial accountability and transitional justice measures.    

The Oskil Dam report will join other Conflict Observatory publications that identify, analyze, and preserve possible evidence of atrocities that impact the Ukrainian people, places, and resources, including a 2024 report by Greenland and other researchers with UVA’s Curia Lab.  

Published last September, that report used commercial satellite imagery and other open-source information to determine that multiple ancient Ukrainian burial mounds had been damaged in two locations occupied by Russian troops — a potential violation of international law.